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Deportivo Lara vs CD Hermanos Colmenarez — Primera División 2018

Deportivo Lara
Deportivo Lara
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
5/5/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 11Estadio Farid Richa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Deportivo Lara49%
×Draw27%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Lara
1.46
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
0.93

Deportivo Lara creates 57% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 64 away

creates per match

Deportivo Lara
1.45
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
0.98

allows per match

Deportivo Lara
0.88
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.48

finishing

Deportivo Lara+0.00on par
CD Hermanos Colmenarez+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Lara ↓

CD Hermanos Colmenarez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Lara or draw
76%
Deportivo Lara or CD Hermanos Colmenarez
73%
Draw or CD Hermanos Colmenarez
51%

Winning margin

Deportivo Lara wins by 2+
25%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Deportivo Lara 1+ goals
77%
Deportivo Lara 2+ goals
43%
Deportivo Lara 3+ goals
18%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1+ goals
61%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2+ goals
24%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Lara (draw refunded)
67%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Lara at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.88 · 91 matches

CD Hermanos Colmenarez away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.48 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Lara attack 1.45 + CD Hermanos Colmenarez defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.46

CD Hermanos Colmenarez attack 0.98 + Deportivo Lara defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Deportivo Lara scores more
49%
level
27%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez scores more
24%

Deportivo Lara at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Deportivo Lara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Deportivo Lara 0–1 CD Hermanos Colmenarez

CD Hermanos Colmenarez beat Deportivo Lara 1-0 in Primera División on May 5, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Farid Richa in Barquisimeto.