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Deportivo Lara vs Atletico Venezuela — Primera División 2018

Deportivo Lara
Deportivo Lara
CANC
20:00
Atletico Venezuela
Atletico Venezuela
5/10/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 14Estadio Farid Richa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Deportivo Lara49%
×Draw26%
Atletico Venezuela24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Lara
1.49
Atletico Venezuela
0.96

Deportivo Lara creates 55% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 60 away

creates per match

Deportivo Lara
1.45
Atletico Venezuela
1.03

allows per match

Deportivo Lara
0.88
Atletico Venezuela
1.53

finishing

Deportivo Lara+0.00on par
Atletico Venezuela+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Lara ↓

Atletico Venezuela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo Lara or draw
76%
Deportivo Lara or Atletico Venezuela
74%
Draw or Atletico Venezuela
51%

Winning margin

Deportivo Lara wins by 2+
25%
Atletico Venezuela wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Deportivo Lara 1+ goals
77%
Deportivo Lara 2+ goals
44%
Deportivo Lara 3+ goals
19%
Atletico Venezuela 1+ goals
62%
Atletico Venezuela 2+ goals
25%
Atletico Venezuela 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Lara (draw refunded)
67%
Atletico Venezuela (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Lara at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.88 · 91 matches

Atletico Venezuela away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Lara attack 1.45 + Atletico Venezuela defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.49

Atletico Venezuela attack 1.03 + Deportivo Lara defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Deportivo Lara scores more
49%
level
26%
Atletico Venezuela scores more
24%

Deportivo Lara at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Deportivo Lara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo Lara face Atletico Venezuela (Primera División)

Primera División returns with Deportivo Lara hosting Atletico Venezuela. Match starts May 10, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Deportivo Lara host Atletico Venezuela at Estadio Farid Richa.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.