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Deportivo Laferrere vs Liniers — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Deportivo Laferrere
Deportivo Laferrere
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Liniers
Liniers
3/29/2025Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Apertura - 9Ciudad de Laferrere Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Deportivo Laferrere39%
×Draw30%
Liniers30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Laferrere
1.10
Liniers
0.92

Deportivo Laferrere creates 20% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 54 away

creates per match

Deportivo Laferrere
1.11
Liniers
0.76

allows per match

Deportivo Laferrere
1.08
Liniers
1.09

finishing

Deportivo Laferrere+0.00on par
Liniers+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Laferrere ↓

Liniers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Deportivo Laferrere or draw
70%
Deportivo Laferrere or Liniers
70%
Draw or Liniers
61%

Winning margin

Deportivo Laferrere wins by 2+
16%
Liniers wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Deportivo Laferrere 1+ goals
67%
Deportivo Laferrere 2+ goals
30%
Deportivo Laferrere 3+ goals
10%
Liniers 1+ goals
60%
Liniers 2+ goals
23%
Liniers 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Laferrere (draw refunded)
57%
Liniers (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Laferrere at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.08 · 53 matches

Liniers away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.09 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Laferrere attack 1.11 + Liniers defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Liniers attack 0.76 + Deportivo Laferrere defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Deportivo Laferrere scores more
39%
level
30%
Liniers scores more
30%

Deportivo Laferrere at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Deportivo Laferrere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B Metropolitana: Deportivo Laferrere 3–3 Liniers

Deportivo Laferrere and Liniers drew 3-3 in Primera B Metropolitana on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Ciudad de Laferrere Stadium in Buenos Aires.