Deportivo Laferrere 1–1 Fénix: Result & Stats

Deportivo Laferrere

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Fénix

8/30/2025

Primera B Metropolitana · Clausura - 11Ciudad de Laferrere Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Deportivo Laferrere41%

×Draw30%

Fénix29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo LaferrereExpected goals in this matchFénix

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.94

Deportivo Laferrere

1.17

Fénix

0.94

Deportivo Laferrere creates 24% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 126 away

1.11

creates per match

0.79

1.08

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Deportivo Laferrere

1.11

Fénix

0.79

allows per match

Deportivo Laferrere

1.08

Fénix

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Laferrere+0.00on par

Fénix+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Laferrere ↓

Fénix →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Laferrere or draw

71%

Deportivo Laferrere or Fénix

70%

Draw or Fénix

59%

Winning margin

Deportivo Laferrere wins by 2+

18%

Fénix wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Deportivo Laferrere 1+ goals

69%

Deportivo Laferrere 2+ goals

33%

Deportivo Laferrere 3+ goals

11%

Fénix 1+ goals

61%

Fénix 2+ goals

24%

Fénix 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Laferrere (draw refunded)

58%

Fénix (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Laferrere at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.08 · 53 matches

Fénix away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.22 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Laferrere attack 1.11 + Fénix defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.17

Fénix attack 0.79 + Deportivo Laferrere defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportivo Laferrere scores more

41%

level

30%

Fénix scores more

29%

Deportivo Laferrere at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportivo Laferrere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff