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Deportivo Laferrere vs Dock Sud — Primera C 2026

Deportivo Laferrere
Deportivo Laferrere
FT
0 – 0
Dock Sud
Dock Sud
10/13/2018Primera CPrimera C · Round 10Estadio Deportivo Laferrere (Gregorio de Laferrere, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Deportivo Laferrere40%
×Draw29%
Dock Sud30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Laferrere
1.19
Dock Sud
0.99

Deportivo Laferrere creates 20% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 77 away

creates per match

Deportivo Laferrere
1.24
Dock Sud
1.19

allows per match

Deportivo Laferrere
0.80
Dock Sud
1.14

finishing

Deportivo Laferrere+0.00on par
Dock Sud+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Laferrere ↓

Dock Sud →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Deportivo Laferrere or draw
70%
Deportivo Laferrere or Dock Sud
71%
Draw or Dock Sud
60%

Winning margin

Deportivo Laferrere wins by 2+
17%
Dock Sud wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Deportivo Laferrere 1+ goals
70%
Deportivo Laferrere 2+ goals
33%
Deportivo Laferrere 3+ goals
12%
Dock Sud 1+ goals
63%
Dock Sud 2+ goals
26%
Dock Sud 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Laferrere (draw refunded)
57%
Dock Sud (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Laferrere at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.80 · 100 matches

Dock Sud away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.14 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Laferrere attack 1.24 + Dock Sud defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Dock Sud attack 1.19 + Deportivo Laferrere defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Deportivo Laferrere scores more
40%
level
29%
Dock Sud scores more
30%

Deportivo Laferrere at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deportivo Laferrere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Deportivo Laferrere 0–0 Dock Sud

Deportivo Laferrere and Dock Sud drew 0-0 in Primera C on October 13, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Deportivo Laferrere (Gregorio de Laferrere, Provincia de Buenos Aires).