Deportivo Laferrere vs Deportivo Merlo — Primera B Metropolitana 2022
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 53+ matches
Deportivo Laferrere42%
Deportivo Merlo29%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Deportivo Laferrere creates 27% more chances
Season form · 53 home / 86 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under64
- Over36
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No58
- Yes42
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Deportivo Laferrere ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Deportivo Laferrere at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.08 · 53 matches
Deportivo Merlo away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.27 · 86 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Deportivo Laferrere attack 1.11 + Deportivo Merlo defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.19
Deportivo Merlo attack 0.80 + Deportivo Laferrere defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.94
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
Deportivo Laferrere at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "Deportivo Laferrere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Deportivo Armenio
Colegiales
San Miguel
Ituzaingó
Defensores Unidos
Villa San Carlos
Acassuso
CanuelasDeportivo Merlo
Talleres Remedios
Comunicaciones
Los Andes
UAI Urquiza
Dock Sud
Fénix
Argentino Quilmes
JJ UrquizaComunicacionesItuzaingóColegialesVilla San CarlosCanuelasFénixDefensores UnidosDeportivo ArmenioTalleres RemediosArgentino QuilmesJJ UrquizaDock SudAcassusoDeportivo MerloLos AndesUAI UrquizaSan MiguelIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Deportivo Laferrere host Deportivo Merlo on Saturday, 12 July 2025 at 16:10. The match is part of the Primera B Metropolitana 2022/2023 season.
Match Recap: Deportivo Laferrere vs Deportivo Merlo
Deportivo Laferrere and Deportivo Merlo drew 2-2 in Primera B Metropolitana on July 12, 2025.
Goals: E. Rodriguez (13'), B. Benitez (28'), N. Vivas (64'), F. Aguerre (78').
The match was played at Ciudad de Laferrere Stadium in Buenos Aires.