Deportivo La Guaira 1–1 Zulia FC: Result & Stats

Deportivo La Guaira

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Zulia FC

7/29/2018

Primera División · Clausura - 2Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui (Puerto la Cruz)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Deportivo La Guaira51%

×Draw26%

Zulia FC24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo La GuairaExpected goals in this matchZulia FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.98

Deportivo La Guaira

1.55

Zulia FC

0.98

Deportivo La Guaira creates 58% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 66 away

1.49

creates per match

1.06

0.89

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Deportivo La Guaira

1.49

Zulia FC

1.06

allows per match

Deportivo La Guaira

0.89

Zulia FC

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo La Guaira+0.00on par

Zulia FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Guaira ↓

Zulia FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo La Guaira or draw

76%

Deportivo La Guaira or Zulia FC

74%

Draw or Zulia FC

49%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Guaira wins by 2+

26%

Zulia FC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Deportivo La Guaira 1+ goals

79%

Deportivo La Guaira 2+ goals

46%

Deportivo La Guaira 3+ goals

20%

Zulia FC 1+ goals

62%

Zulia FC 2+ goals

26%

Zulia FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Guaira (draw refunded)

68%

Zulia FC (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Guaira at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.89 · 150 matches

Zulia FC away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.61 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Guaira attack 1.49 + Zulia FC defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.55

Zulia FC attack 1.06 + Deportivo La Guaira defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Deportivo La Guaira scores more

51%

level

26%

Zulia FC scores more

24%

Deportivo La Guaira at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Deportivo La Guaira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff