Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Deportivo La Guaira vs Maritimo — Copa Venezuela 2024

Deportivo La Guaira
Deportivo La Guaira
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Maritimo
Maritimo
6/20/2024Copa VenezuelaCopa Venezuela · Group Stage - 3Estadio Olímpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Deportivo La Guaira45%
×Draw24%
Maritimo30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo La Guaira
1.63
Maritimo
1.29

Deportivo La Guaira creates 26% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Deportivo La Guaira
2.00
Maritimo
1.75

allows per match

Deportivo La Guaira
0.83
Maritimo
1.25

finishing

Deportivo La Guaira+0.00on par
Maritimo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Guaira ↓

Maritimo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Deportivo La Guaira or draw
70%
Deportivo La Guaira or Maritimo
76%
Draw or Maritimo
55%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Guaira wins by 2+
23%
Maritimo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Deportivo La Guaira 1+ goals
80%
Deportivo La Guaira 2+ goals
48%
Deportivo La Guaira 3+ goals
22%
Maritimo 1+ goals
72%
Maritimo 2+ goals
37%
Maritimo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Guaira (draw refunded)
60%
Maritimo (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Guaira at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Maritimo away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Guaira attack 2.00 + Maritimo defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Maritimo attack 1.75 + Deportivo La Guaira defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Deportivo La Guaira scores more
45%
level
24%
Maritimo scores more
30%

Deportivo La Guaira at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Deportivo La Guaira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo La Guaira vs Maritimo

Deportivo La Guaira and Maritimo drew 3-3 in Copa Venezuela on June 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de la UCV in Caracas.