Deportivo La Guaira 2–0 Estudiantes Caracas

Deportivo La Guaira

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Estudiantes Caracas

M. Arteaga 90+2', 69' (pen)

3/11/2018

Primera División · Apertura - 8Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui (Puerto la Cruz)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Deportivo La Guaira57%

×Draw23%

Estudiantes Caracas20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo La GuairaExpected goals in this matchEstudiantes Caracas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.96

Deportivo La Guaira

1.81

Estudiantes Caracas

0.96

Deportivo La Guaira creates 89% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 35 away

1.49

creates per match

1.03

0.89

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Deportivo La Guaira

1.49

Estudiantes Caracas

1.03

allows per match

Deportivo La Guaira

0.89

Estudiantes Caracas

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo La Guaira+0.00on par

Estudiantes Caracas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Guaira ↓

Estudiantes Caracas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Deportivo La Guaira or draw

80%

Deportivo La Guaira or Estudiantes Caracas

77%

Draw or Estudiantes Caracas

43%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Guaira wins by 2+

33%

Estudiantes Caracas wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Deportivo La Guaira 1+ goals

84%

Deportivo La Guaira 2+ goals

54%

Deportivo La Guaira 3+ goals

27%

Estudiantes Caracas 1+ goals

62%

Estudiantes Caracas 2+ goals

25%

Estudiantes Caracas 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Guaira (draw refunded)

74%

Estudiantes Caracas (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Guaira at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.89 · 150 matches

Estudiantes Caracas away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.14 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Guaira attack 1.49 + Estudiantes Caracas defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.81

Estudiantes Caracas attack 1.03 + Deportivo La Guaira defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Deportivo La Guaira scores more

57%

level

23%

Estudiantes Caracas scores more

20%

Deportivo La Guaira at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Deportivo La Guaira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'

R. Halley← H. Maldonado

57'

J. Lugo← J. Azócar

69'

M. ArteagaPenalty

75'

F. Fasciana← G. Rosa

78'

L. Ramírez← Y. Silva

80'

J. Mora← V. Suanno

89'

L. Morgillo← César González

90+2'

M. Arteaga

Deportivo

Estudiantes

12

23

7

4

18

6

▼

Rosa

17

▼

21

9

20

16

▼

30

4

19

6

13

11

▼

González

16

▼

Suanno

8

Flores

10

Gurri

9

⚽2

Arteaga

26

▼

Azócar

Manager: P. de Pablos

57'▲J. Lugo←▼J. Azócar

80'▲J. Mora←▼V. Suanno

89'▲L. Morgillo←▼César González

Deportivo La Guaira substitutes

7Lugo21Mora3Morgillo1González14García24Cumana34Mosquera

Manager: J. Fasciana

53'▲R. Halley←▼H. Maldonado

75'▲F. Fasciana←▼G. Rosa

78'▲L. Ramírez←▼Y. Silva

Estudiantes Caracas substitutes

14Halley5Fasciana10Ramírez3Díaz22Roa24Beirutti28González

Primera División: Deportivo La Guaira 2–0 Estudiantes Caracas

Deportivo La Guaira beat Estudiantes Caracas 2-0 in Primera División on March 11, 2018.

Goals: M. Arteaga (69' pen, 90+2').

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui (Puerto la Cruz).

Deportivo La Guaira vs Estudiantes Caracas — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División: Deportivo La Guaira 2–0 Estudiantes Caracas