Deportivo La Guaira 0–1 Cerro Porteno

Deportivo La Guaira

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cerro Porteno

5/13/2021

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group H - 4Estadio Olímpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Deportivo La Guaira33%

×Draw34%

Cerro Porteno33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo La GuairaExpected goals in this matchCerro Porteno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.86

Deportivo La Guaira

0.86

Cerro Porteno

0.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 32 away

0.63

creates per match

0.72

1.00

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Deportivo La Guaira

0.63

Cerro Porteno

0.72

allows per match

Deportivo La Guaira

1.00

Cerro Porteno

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo La Guaira+0.00on par

Cerro Porteno+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Guaira ↓

Cerro Porteno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–115%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Deportivo La Guaira or draw

67%

Deportivo La Guaira or Cerro Porteno

66%

Draw or Cerro Porteno

67%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Guaira wins by 2+

11%

Cerro Porteno wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Deportivo La Guaira 1+ goals

58%

Deportivo La Guaira 2+ goals

21%

Deportivo La Guaira 3+ goals

6%

Cerro Porteno 1+ goals

58%

Cerro Porteno 2+ goals

21%

Cerro Porteno 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Guaira (draw refunded)

50%

Cerro Porteno (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Guaira at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Cerro Porteno away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.09 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Guaira attack 0.63 + Cerro Porteno defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.86

Cerro Porteno attack 0.72 + Deportivo La Guaira defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 33%?"

Deportivo La Guaira scores more

33%

level

34%

Cerro Porteno scores more

33%

Deportivo La Guaira at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "Deportivo La Guaira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff