Deportivo La Guaira 0–2 Ceara: Result & Stats

Deportivo La Guaira

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Ceara

Lima 9'

Vina 6'

4/12/2022

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 2Estadio Olímpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Deportivo La Guaira15%

×Draw31%

Ceara54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo La GuairaExpected goals in this matchCeara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.49

1.20

Deportivo La Guaira

0.49

Ceara

1.20

Ceara creates 145% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

0.60

creates per match

1.00

1.40

allows per match

0.38

creates per match

Deportivo La Guaira

0.60

Ceara

1.00

allows per match

Deportivo La Guaira

1.40

Ceara

0.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo La Guaira+0.00on par

Ceara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under76
Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No73
Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Guaira ↓

Ceara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–122%

0–213%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–02%

2–13%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

50%50%2.5

24%76%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Deportivo La Guaira or draw

46%

Deportivo La Guaira or Ceara

69%

Draw or Ceara

85%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Guaira wins by 2+

3%

Ceara wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Deportivo La Guaira 1+ goals

39%

Deportivo La Guaira 2+ goals

9%

Deportivo La Guaira 3+ goals

1%

Ceara 1+ goals

70%

Ceara 2+ goals

34%

Ceara 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Guaira (draw refunded)

22%

Ceara (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Guaira at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Ceara away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Guaira attack 0.60 + Ceara defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.49

Ceara attack 1.00 + Deportivo La Guaira defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Deportivo La Guaira scores more

15%

level

31%

Ceara scores more

54%

Ceara at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ceara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

45

Lima

Ceara · F

7.9

Match Events

6'

Vina↳ Richard Cândido

9'

Lima↳ Bruno Pacheco

46'

F. La Mantia← K. Silva

60'

Erick← Richardson

60'

Geovane← S. Mendoza

62'

Richard Coelho

63'

Yohan Cumana

64'

D. Paz← S. Unrein

71'

Fernando Sobral← Richard Cândido

72'

Zé Roberto← Vina

73'

Arles Flores

78'

Lucas Ribeiro← Lima

84'

H. García← S. Herrera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoCeara

Overview

52%Possession48%

10Total Shots10

5Corners1

10Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots10

2On Target5

5Off Target5

3Blocked0

2Inside Box7

8Outside Box3

Passing

52%Possession48%

537Total Passes498

459Accurate Passes412

85%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls14

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1