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Deportivo La Guaira vs Angostura FC — Primera División 2018

Deportivo La Guaira
Deportivo La Guaira
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Angostura FC
Angostura FC
4/15/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 10Estadio Olímpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Deportivo La Guaira52%
×Draw25%
Angostura FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo La Guaira
1.61
Angostura FC
0.98

Deportivo La Guaira creates 64% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 30 away

creates per match

Deportivo La Guaira
1.49
Angostura FC
1.07

allows per match

Deportivo La Guaira
0.89
Angostura FC
1.73

finishing

Deportivo La Guaira+0.00on par
Angostura FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Guaira ↓

Angostura FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Deportivo La Guaira or draw
77%
Deportivo La Guaira or Angostura FC
75%
Draw or Angostura FC
48%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Guaira wins by 2+
28%
Angostura FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Deportivo La Guaira 1+ goals
80%
Deportivo La Guaira 2+ goals
48%
Deportivo La Guaira 3+ goals
22%
Angostura FC 1+ goals
62%
Angostura FC 2+ goals
26%
Angostura FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Guaira (draw refunded)
69%
Angostura FC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Guaira at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.89 · 150 matches

Angostura FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Guaira attack 1.49 + Angostura FC defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.61

Angostura FC attack 1.07 + Deportivo La Guaira defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Deportivo La Guaira scores more
52%
level
25%
Angostura FC scores more
23%

Deportivo La Guaira at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Deportivo La Guaira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Deportivo La Guaira 1–0 Angostura FC

Deportivo La Guaira beat Angostura FC 1-0 in Primera División on April 15, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de la UCV in Caracas.