Deportivo La Coruna 1–1 Valencia: Result & Stats

Deportivo La Coruna

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Valencia

1/24/2016

La Liga · Round 21Estadio de Riazor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Deportivo La Coruna38%

×Draw25%

Valencia37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo La CorunaExpected goals in this matchValencia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.39

Deportivo La Coruna

1.41

Valencia

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 139 away

1.23

creates per match

1.01

1.77

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Deportivo La Coruna

1.23

Valencia

1.01

allows per match

Deportivo La Coruna

1.77

Valencia

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo La Coruna+0.00on par

Valencia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Coruna ↓

Valencia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Deportivo La Coruna or draw

63%

Deportivo La Coruna or Valencia

75%

Draw or Valencia

62%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2+

18%

Valencia wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Deportivo La Coruna 1+ goals

76%

Deportivo La Coruna 2+ goals

41%

Deportivo La Coruna 3+ goals

17%

Valencia 1+ goals

75%

Valencia 2+ goals

40%

Valencia 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Coruna (draw refunded)

51%

Valencia (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Coruna at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.77 · 26 matches

Valencia away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.58 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.23 + Valencia defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.41

Valencia attack 1.01 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Deportivo La Coruna scores more

38%

level

25%

Valencia scores more

37%

Deportivo La Coruna at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Deportivo La Coruna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff