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Deportivo La Coruna vs SS Reyes — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Deportivo La Coruna
Deportivo La Coruna
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
SS Reyes
SS Reyes
10/29/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Estadio Abanca-Riazor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Deportivo La Coruna56%
×Draw26%
SS Reyes18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo La Coruna
1.52
SS Reyes
0.74

Deportivo La Coruna creates 105% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 53 away

creates per match

Deportivo La Coruna
1.69
SS Reyes
0.92

allows per match

Deportivo La Coruna
0.57
SS Reyes
1.36

finishing

Deportivo La Coruna+0.00on par
SS Reyes+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Coruna ↓

SS Reyes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo La Coruna or draw
82%
Deportivo La Coruna or SS Reyes
74%
Draw or SS Reyes
44%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2+
29%
SS Reyes wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Deportivo La Coruna 1+ goals
78%
Deportivo La Coruna 2+ goals
45%
Deportivo La Coruna 3+ goals
20%
SS Reyes 1+ goals
52%
SS Reyes 2+ goals
17%
SS Reyes 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Coruna (draw refunded)
75%
SS Reyes (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Coruna at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.57 · 68 matches

SS Reyes away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.36 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.69 + SS Reyes defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.52

SS Reyes attack 0.92 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Deportivo La Coruna scores more
56%
level
26%
SS Reyes scores more
18%

Deportivo La Coruna at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Deportivo La Coruna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Deportivo La Coruna 1–0 SS Reyes

Deportivo La Coruna beat SS Reyes 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Abanca-Riazor in La Coruña.