Deportivo La Coruna 2–1 Salamanca UDS

Deportivo La Coruna

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Salamanca UDS

10/18/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Estadio Abanca-Riazor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Deportivo La Coruna55%

×Draw29%

Salamanca UDS16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo La CorunaExpected goals in this matchSalamanca UDS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.55

Deportivo La Coruna

1.30

Salamanca UDS

0.55

Deportivo La Coruna creates 136% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 13 away

1.69

creates per match

0.54

0.57

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Deportivo La Coruna

1.69

Salamanca UDS

0.54

allows per match

Deportivo La Coruna

0.57

Salamanca UDS

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo La Coruna+0.00on par

Salamanca UDS+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Coruna ↓

Salamanca UDS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–19%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Deportivo La Coruna or draw

84%

Deportivo La Coruna or Salamanca UDS

71%

Draw or Salamanca UDS

45%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2+

26%

Salamanca UDS wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Deportivo La Coruna 1+ goals

73%

Deportivo La Coruna 2+ goals

37%

Deportivo La Coruna 3+ goals

14%

Salamanca UDS 1+ goals

42%

Salamanca UDS 2+ goals

11%

Salamanca UDS 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Coruna (draw refunded)

78%

Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Coruna at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.57 · 68 matches

Salamanca UDS away — creates 0.54, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.69 + Salamanca UDS defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.30

Salamanca UDS attack 0.54 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Deportivo La Coruna scores more

55%

level

29%

Salamanca UDS scores more

16%

Deportivo La Coruna at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Deportivo La Coruna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff