Deportivo La Coruna 1–3 Castellón: Result & Stats

Deportivo La Coruna

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Castellón

Y. Hernandez 32'

B. Cipenga 84'

F. Brignani 79'

M. Doue 64'

12/7/2025

Segunda División · Round 17Estadio Municipal de Riazor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Deportivo La Coruna35%

×Draw23%

Castellón41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo La CorunaExpected goals in this matchCastellón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.68

Deportivo La Coruna

1.54

Castellón

1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.64

creates per match

2.18

1.18

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Deportivo La Coruna

1.64

Castellón

2.18

allows per match

Deportivo La Coruna

1.18

Castellón

1.44

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.61scores less than expected

finishing

Deportivo La Coruna-0.04on par

Castellón-0.61scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Coruna ↓

Castellón →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Deportivo La Coruna or draw

59%

Deportivo La Coruna or Castellón

77%

Draw or Castellón

65%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2+

17%

Castellón wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Deportivo La Coruna 1+ goals

79%

Deportivo La Coruna 2+ goals

45%

Deportivo La Coruna 3+ goals

20%

Castellón 1+ goals

81%

Castellón 2+ goals

50%

Castellón 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Coruna (draw refunded)

46%

Castellón (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Coruna at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.18 · 5 matches

Castellón away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.44 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.64 + Castellón defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.54

Castellón attack 2.18 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportivo La Coruna scores more

35%

level

23%

Castellón scores more

41%

Castellón at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Castellón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

B. Cipenga

Castellón · F

8.9

Match Events

22'

Lucas Alcazar

26'

Stoichkov

32'

Y. Hernandez↳ Stoichkov

37'

Diego Villares

45+2'

Giacomo Quagliata

45+2'

Awer Mabil

46'

B. Cipenga← P. Santiago

63'

M. Doue← Alcazar

63'

I. Suero← B. Gerenabarrena

64'

M. Doue↳ Barri

65'

S. Mulattieri← Stoichkov

69'

Jeremy Mellot

70'

C. Patino← D. Villares

70'

Z. Eddahchouri← J. Jurado

71'

Romain Matthys

77'

N. Markanich← O. Camara

79'

F. Brignani← A. Mabil

79'

F. Brignani↳ B. Cipenga

81'

C. Herrera← G. Quagliata

84'

B. Cipenga↳ I. Suero

90+5'

Lucas Noubi

90+5'

Lucas NoubiCard upgrade

90+7'

Israel Suero

90+7'

Diego Barri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoCastellón

Overview

44%Possession56%

6Total Shots17

3Corners9

13Fouls15

Shots

6Total Shots17

3On Target5

3Off Target6

0Blocked6

4Inside Box12

2Outside Box5

Passing

44%Possession56%

335Total Passes419

251Accurate Passes337

75%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls15

3Yellow Cards6

1Red Cards0

6Offsides0