Deportivo La Coruna vs Atletico Madrid — League #143 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
Deportivo La Coruna8%
Atletico Madrid71%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Atletico Madrid creates 304% more chances
Season form · 3 home / 5 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under59
- Over41
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No69
- Yes31
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Deportivo La Coruna ↓
Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Deportivo La Coruna at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches
Atletico Madrid away — creates 2.40, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Deportivo La Coruna attack 0.33 + Atletico Madrid defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.46
Atletico Madrid attack 2.40 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.86
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 71%?"
Atletico Madrid at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 71% does not mean "Atletico Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetingsPossession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Deportivo La Coruna host Atletico Madrid on Tuesday, 13 January 2026 at 20:00. The match is part of the League #143 2026/2027 season.
League #143: Deportivo La Coruna 0–1 Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid beat Deportivo La Coruna 1-0 in League #143 on January 13, 2026.
Goals: A. Griezmann (61').
Atletico Madrid controlled possession (52%) and registered 15 shots to 10.
The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Riazor in La Coruña.