Deportivo La Coruna 1–1 Almeria: Result & Stats

Deportivo La Coruna

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Almeria

Y. Hernandez 62'

F. Bonini 23'

10/4/2025

Segunda División · Round 8Estadio Municipal de Riazor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Deportivo La Coruna40%

×Draw27%

Almeria33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo La CorunaExpected goals in this matchAlmeria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.20

Deportivo La Coruna

1.34

Almeria

1.20

Deportivo La Coruna creates 12% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 131 away

1.42

creates per match

1.29

1.11

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Deportivo La Coruna

1.42

Almeria

1.29

allows per match

Deportivo La Coruna

1.11

Almeria

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo La Coruna+0.00on par

Almeria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Coruna ↓

Almeria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo La Coruna or draw

67%

Deportivo La Coruna or Almeria

73%

Draw or Almeria

60%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2+

18%

Almeria wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Deportivo La Coruna 1+ goals

74%

Deportivo La Coruna 2+ goals

39%

Deportivo La Coruna 3+ goals

15%

Almeria 1+ goals

70%

Almeria 2+ goals

34%

Almeria 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Coruna (draw refunded)

55%

Almeria (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Coruna at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.11 · 85 matches

Almeria away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.26 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.42 + Almeria defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.34

Almeria attack 1.29 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Deportivo La Coruna scores more

40%

level

27%

Almeria scores more

33%

Deportivo La Coruna at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deportivo La Coruna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Y. Hernandez

Deportivo La Coruna · F

8.2

Match Events

20'

Luismi Cruz

23'

F. Bonini↳ N. Melamed

28'

Álex Muñoz

43'

Ximo Navarro

54'

Stefan Džodić

55'

Z. Eddahchouri← C. Patino

59'

M. Luna← A. Puigmal

60'

P. Soko← Leo Baptistao

62'

Y. Hernandez↳ Z. Eddahchouri

65'

L. Noubi← X. Navarro

65'

Stoichkov← S. Mulattieri

66'

Diego Villares

67'

I. Baba← A. Horta

67'

Gui Guedes← S. Dzodic

71'

Iddrisu Baba

89'

J. Jurado← D. Villares

89'

C. Herrera← Cruz Luismi

89'

M. Perovic← N. Melamed

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoAlmeria

Overview

47%Possession53%

15Total Shots10

4Corners2

11Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots10

4On Target3

9Off Target1

2Blocked6

12Inside Box6

3Outside Box4

Passing

47%Possession53%

438Total Passes518

384Accurate Passes461

88%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls13

3Yellow Cards3

8Offsides1