Deportivo La Coruna 0–0 Alcorcon: Result & Stats

Deportivo La Coruna

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Alcorcon

11/23/2019

Segunda División · Round 17Estadio Abanca-Riazor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Deportivo La Coruna45%

×Draw27%

Alcorcon28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo La CorunaExpected goals in this matchAlcorcon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.01

Deportivo La Coruna

1.38

Alcorcon

1.01

Deportivo La Coruna creates 37% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 105 away

1.42

creates per match

0.90

1.11

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Deportivo La Coruna

1.42

Alcorcon

0.90

allows per match

Deportivo La Coruna

1.11

Alcorcon

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo La Coruna+0.00on par

Alcorcon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Coruna ↓

Alcorcon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo La Coruna or draw

72%

Deportivo La Coruna or Alcorcon

73%

Draw or Alcorcon

55%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2+

22%

Alcorcon wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Deportivo La Coruna 1+ goals

75%

Deportivo La Coruna 2+ goals

40%

Deportivo La Coruna 3+ goals

16%

Alcorcon 1+ goals

64%

Alcorcon 2+ goals

27%

Alcorcon 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Coruna (draw refunded)

62%

Alcorcon (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Coruna at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.11 · 85 matches

Alcorcon away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.33 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.42 + Alcorcon defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.38

Alcorcon attack 0.90 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Deportivo La Coruna scores more

45%

level

27%

Alcorcon scores more

28%

Deportivo La Coruna at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Deportivo La Coruna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff