Deportivo La Coruña II 3–1 UD Ourense

Deportivo La Coruña II

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

UD Ourense

11/3/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Ciudad Deportiva de Abegondo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Deportivo La Coruña II54%

×Draw26%

UD Ourense21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo La Coruña IIExpected goals in this matchUD Ourense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.85

Deportivo La Coruña II

1.55

UD Ourense

0.85

Deportivo La Coruña II creates 82% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 79 away

1.97

creates per match

0.97

0.73

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Deportivo La Coruña II

1.97

UD Ourense

0.97

allows per match

Deportivo La Coruña II

0.73

UD Ourense

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo La Coruña II+0.00on par

UD Ourense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Coruña II ↓

UD Ourense →

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo La Coruña II or draw

79%

Deportivo La Coruña II or UD Ourense

74%

Draw or UD Ourense

46%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Coruña II wins by 2+

28%

UD Ourense wins by 2+

Team goals

Deportivo La Coruña II 1+ goals

79%

Deportivo La Coruña II 2+ goals

46%

Deportivo La Coruña II 3+ goals

20%

UD Ourense 1+ goals

57%

UD Ourense 2+ goals

21%

UD Ourense 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Coruña II (draw refunded)

72%

UD Ourense (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Coruña II at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.73 · 59 matches

UD Ourense away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.14 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Coruña II attack 1.97 + UD Ourense defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.55

UD Ourense attack 0.97 + Deportivo La Coruña II defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Deportivo La Coruña II scores more

54%

level

26%

UD Ourense scores more

21%

Deportivo La Coruña II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Deportivo La Coruña II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo La Coruña II vs UD Ourense

Deportivo La Coruña II beat UD Ourense 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Abegondo in La Coruña.

Deportivo La Coruña II vs UD Ourense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Deportivo La Coruña II vs UD Ourense