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Deportivo La Coruña II vs Sofán — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Deportivo La Coruña II
Deportivo La Coruña II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sofán
Sofán
10/24/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Ciudad Deportiva de Abegondo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Deportivo La Coruña II69%
×Draw18%
Sofán12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo La Coruña II
2.21
Sofán
0.80

Deportivo La Coruña II creates 176% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 16 away

creates per match

Deportivo La Coruña II
1.97
Sofán
0.88

allows per match

Deportivo La Coruña II
0.73
Sofán
2.44

finishing

Deportivo La Coruña II+0.00on par
Sofán+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Coruña II ↓

Sofán →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Deportivo La Coruña II or draw
88%
Deportivo La Coruña II or Sofán
82%
Draw or Sofán
31%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Coruña II wins by 2+
45%
Sofán wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Deportivo La Coruña II 1+ goals
89%
Deportivo La Coruña II 2+ goals
65%
Deportivo La Coruña II 3+ goals
38%
Sofán 1+ goals
55%
Sofán 2+ goals
19%
Sofán 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Coruña II (draw refunded)
85%
Sofán (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Coruña II at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.73 · 59 matches

Sofán away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Coruña II attack 1.97 + Sofán defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.21

Sofán attack 0.88 + Deportivo La Coruña II defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Deportivo La Coruña II scores more
69%
level
18%
Sofán scores more
12%

Deportivo La Coruña II at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Deportivo La Coruña II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo La Coruña II 2 – 0 Sofán

Deportivo La Coruña II beat Sofán 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 24, 2021.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Abegondo in La Coruña.