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Deportivo La Coruña II vs Choco — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Deportivo La Coruña II
Deportivo La Coruña II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Choco
Choco
12/3/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Ciudad Deportiva de Abegondo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Deportivo La Coruña II58%
×Draw24%
Choco18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo La Coruña II
1.69
Choco
0.82

Deportivo La Coruña II creates 106% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 59 away

creates per match

Deportivo La Coruña II
1.97
Choco
0.92

allows per match

Deportivo La Coruña II
0.73
Choco
1.42

finishing

Deportivo La Coruña II+0.00on par
Choco+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Coruña II ↓

Choco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo La Coruña II or draw
82%
Deportivo La Coruña II or Choco
76%
Draw or Choco
42%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Coruña II wins by 2+
32%
Choco wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Deportivo La Coruña II 1+ goals
82%
Deportivo La Coruña II 2+ goals
50%
Deportivo La Coruña II 3+ goals
24%
Choco 1+ goals
56%
Choco 2+ goals
20%
Choco 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Coruña II (draw refunded)
76%
Choco (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Coruña II at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.73 · 59 matches

Choco away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.42 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Coruña II attack 1.97 + Choco defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.69

Choco attack 0.92 + Deportivo La Coruña II defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Deportivo La Coruña II scores more
58%
level
24%
Choco scores more
18%

Deportivo La Coruña II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Deportivo La Coruña II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo La Coruña II 3 – 1 Choco

Deportivo La Coruña II beat Choco 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 3, 2022.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Abegondo in La Coruña.