Deportivo La Coruña II 1–4 CD Lugo B

Deportivo La Coruña II

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

CD Lugo B

12/5/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Ciudad Deportiva de Abegondo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Deportivo La Coruña II52%

×Draw25%

CD Lugo B23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo La Coruña IIExpected goals in this matchCD Lugo B

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.00

Deportivo La Coruña II

1.62

CD Lugo B

1.00

Deportivo La Coruña II creates 62% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 94 away

1.97

creates per match

1.28

0.73

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Deportivo La Coruña II

1.97

CD Lugo B

1.28

allows per match

Deportivo La Coruña II

0.73

CD Lugo B

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo La Coruña II+0.00on par

CD Lugo B+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Coruña II ↓

CD Lugo B →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Deportivo La Coruña II or draw

77%

Deportivo La Coruña II or CD Lugo B

75%

Draw or CD Lugo B

48%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Coruña II wins by 2+

27%

CD Lugo B wins by 2+

Team goals

Deportivo La Coruña II 1+ goals

80%

Deportivo La Coruña II 2+ goals

48%

Deportivo La Coruña II 3+ goals

22%

CD Lugo B 1+ goals

63%

CD Lugo B 2+ goals

26%

CD Lugo B 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Coruña II (draw refunded)

69%

CD Lugo B (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Coruña II at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.73 · 59 matches

CD Lugo B away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.27 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Coruña II attack 1.97 + CD Lugo B defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.62

CD Lugo B attack 1.28 + Deportivo La Coruña II defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Deportivo La Coruña II scores more

52%

level

25%

CD Lugo B scores more

23%

Deportivo La Coruña II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Deportivo La Coruña II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff