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Deportivo La Coruña II vs As Pontes — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Deportivo La Coruña II
Deportivo La Coruña II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
As Pontes
As Pontes
11/17/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Ciudad Deportiva de Abegondo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Deportivo La Coruña II65%
×Draw21%
As Pontes14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo La Coruña II
1.91
As Pontes
0.73

Deportivo La Coruña II creates 162% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 31 away

creates per match

Deportivo La Coruña II
1.97
As Pontes
0.74

allows per match

Deportivo La Coruña II
0.73
As Pontes
1.84

finishing

Deportivo La Coruña II+0.00on par
As Pontes+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Coruña II ↓

As Pontes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Deportivo La Coruña II or draw
86%
Deportivo La Coruña II or As Pontes
79%
Draw or As Pontes
35%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Coruña II wins by 2+
40%
As Pontes wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Deportivo La Coruña II 1+ goals
85%
Deportivo La Coruña II 2+ goals
57%
Deportivo La Coruña II 3+ goals
30%
As Pontes 1+ goals
52%
As Pontes 2+ goals
17%
As Pontes 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Coruña II (draw refunded)
83%
As Pontes (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Coruña II at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.73 · 59 matches

As Pontes away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.84 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Coruña II attack 1.97 + As Pontes defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.91

As Pontes attack 0.74 + Deportivo La Coruña II defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Deportivo La Coruña II scores more
65%
level
21%
As Pontes scores more
14%

Deportivo La Coruña II at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Deportivo La Coruña II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Deportivo La Coruña II 2–1 As Pontes

Deportivo La Coruña II beat As Pontes 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 17, 2019.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Abegondo in La Coruña.