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Deportivo La Coruña II vs Agrupación Estudiantil — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Deportivo La Coruña II
Deportivo La Coruña II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Agrupación Estudiantil
Agrupación Estudiantil
12/8/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9Ciudad Deportiva de Abegondo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Deportivo La Coruña II63%
×Draw21%
Agrupación Estudiantil16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo La Coruña II
2.04
Agrupación Estudiantil
0.93

Deportivo La Coruña II creates 119% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 17 away

creates per match

Deportivo La Coruña II
1.97
Agrupación Estudiantil
1.12

allows per match

Deportivo La Coruña II
0.73
Agrupación Estudiantil
2.12

finishing

Deportivo La Coruña II+0.00on par
Agrupación Estudiantil+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Coruña II ↓

Agrupación Estudiantil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Deportivo La Coruña II or draw
84%
Deportivo La Coruña II or Agrupación Estudiantil
79%
Draw or Agrupación Estudiantil
37%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Coruña II wins by 2+
39%
Agrupación Estudiantil wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Deportivo La Coruña II 1+ goals
87%
Deportivo La Coruña II 2+ goals
60%
Deportivo La Coruña II 3+ goals
33%
Agrupación Estudiantil 1+ goals
61%
Agrupación Estudiantil 2+ goals
24%
Agrupación Estudiantil 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Coruña II (draw refunded)
79%
Agrupación Estudiantil (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Coruña II at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.73 · 59 matches

Agrupación Estudiantil away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Coruña II attack 1.97 + Agrupación Estudiantil defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.04

Agrupación Estudiantil attack 1.12 + Deportivo La Coruña II defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Deportivo La Coruña II scores more
63%
level
21%
Agrupación Estudiantil scores more
16%

Deportivo La Coruña II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Deportivo La Coruña II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo La Coruña II 3 – 1 Agrupación Estudiantil

Deportivo La Coruña II beat Agrupación Estudiantil 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 8, 2020.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Abegondo in La Coruña.