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Deportivo JBL del Zulia vs Yaracuyanos FC — Segunda División 2018

Deportivo JBL del Zulia
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
FT
1 – 2
Yaracuyanos FC
Yaracuyanos FC
5/22/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 15Estadio José Encarnación Pachencho Romero (Maracaibo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Deportivo JBL del Zulia34%
×Draw25%
Yaracuyanos FC42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo JBL del Zulia
1.34
Yaracuyanos FC
1.52

Yaracuyanos FC creates 13% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 80 away

creates per match

Deportivo JBL del Zulia
1.42
Yaracuyanos FC
1.45

allows per match

Deportivo JBL del Zulia
1.60
Yaracuyanos FC
1.26

finishing

Deportivo JBL del Zulia+0.00on par
Yaracuyanos FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo JBL del Zulia ↓

Yaracuyanos FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Deportivo JBL del Zulia or draw
58%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia or Yaracuyanos FC
75%
Draw or Yaracuyanos FC
66%

Winning margin

Deportivo JBL del Zulia wins by 2+
15%
Yaracuyanos FC wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Deportivo JBL del Zulia 1+ goals
74%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia 2+ goals
39%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia 3+ goals
15%
Yaracuyanos FC 1+ goals
78%
Yaracuyanos FC 2+ goals
45%
Yaracuyanos FC 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Deportivo JBL del Zulia (draw refunded)
45%
Yaracuyanos FC (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo JBL del Zulia at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

Yaracuyanos FC away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.26 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo JBL del Zulia attack 1.42 + Yaracuyanos FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.34

Yaracuyanos FC attack 1.45 + Deportivo JBL del Zulia defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Deportivo JBL del Zulia scores more
34%
level
25%
Yaracuyanos FC scores more
42%

Yaracuyanos FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Yaracuyanos FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Deportivo JBL del Zulia 1–2 Yaracuyanos FC

Yaracuyanos FC beat Deportivo JBL del Zulia 2-1 in Segunda División on May 22, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio José Encarnación Pachencho Romero (Maracaibo).