Deportivo JBL del Zulia 2–1 Atletico el Vigia FC

Deportivo JBL del Zulia

FT

2 – 1

Atletico el Vigia FC

7/21/2021

Segunda División · Round 2Estadio Olímpico Guillermo Soto Rosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Deportivo JBL del Zulia44%

×Draw25%

Atletico el Vigia FC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo JBL del ZuliaExpected goals in this matchAtletico el Vigia FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.29

Deportivo JBL del Zulia

1.57

Atletico el Vigia FC

1.29

Deportivo JBL del Zulia creates 22% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 104 away

1.42

creates per match

0.97

1.60

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Deportivo JBL del Zulia

1.42

Atletico el Vigia FC

0.97

allows per match

Deportivo JBL del Zulia

1.60

Atletico el Vigia FC

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo JBL del Zulia+0.00on par

Atletico el Vigia FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo JBL del Zulia ↓

Atletico el Vigia FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Deportivo JBL del Zulia or draw

69%

Deportivo JBL del Zulia or Atletico el Vigia FC

75%

Draw or Atletico el Vigia FC

56%

Winning margin

Deportivo JBL del Zulia wins by 2+

22%

Atletico el Vigia FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Deportivo JBL del Zulia 1+ goals

79%

Deportivo JBL del Zulia 2+ goals

46%

Deportivo JBL del Zulia 3+ goals

21%

Atletico el Vigia FC 1+ goals

72%

Atletico el Vigia FC 2+ goals

37%

Atletico el Vigia FC 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Deportivo JBL del Zulia (draw refunded)

58%

Atletico el Vigia FC (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo JBL del Zulia at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

Atletico el Vigia FC away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.72 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo JBL del Zulia attack 1.42 + Atletico el Vigia FC defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.57

Atletico el Vigia FC attack 0.97 + Deportivo JBL del Zulia defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Deportivo JBL del Zulia scores more

44%

level

25%

Atletico el Vigia FC scores more

31%

Deportivo JBL del Zulia at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Deportivo JBL del Zulia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff