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Deportivo Hualgayoc vs Sport Victoria — Segunda División 2018

Deportivo Hualgayoc
Deportivo Hualgayoc
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Sport Victoria
Sport Victoria
6/3/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 9Estadio Municipal de Hualgayoc (Hualgayoc)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Deportivo Hualgayoc71%
×Draw18%
Sport Victoria11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Hualgayoc
2.19
Sport Victoria
0.73

Deportivo Hualgayoc creates 200% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 25 away

creates per match

Deportivo Hualgayoc
2.07
Sport Victoria
0.52

allows per match

Deportivo Hualgayoc
0.93
Sport Victoria
2.32

finishing

Deportivo Hualgayoc+0.00on par
Sport Victoria+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Hualgayoc ↓

Sport Victoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Deportivo Hualgayoc or draw
89%
Deportivo Hualgayoc or Sport Victoria
82%
Draw or Sport Victoria
29%

Winning margin

Deportivo Hualgayoc wins by 2+
46%
Sport Victoria wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Deportivo Hualgayoc 1+ goals
89%
Deportivo Hualgayoc 2+ goals
64%
Deportivo Hualgayoc 3+ goals
37%
Sport Victoria 1+ goals
52%
Sport Victoria 2+ goals
17%
Sport Victoria 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Hualgayoc (draw refunded)
86%
Sport Victoria (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Hualgayoc at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Sport Victoria away — creates 0.52, concedes 2.32 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Hualgayoc attack 2.07 + Sport Victoria defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 2.19

Sport Victoria attack 0.52 + Deportivo Hualgayoc defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Deportivo Hualgayoc scores more
71%
level
18%
Sport Victoria scores more
11%

Deportivo Hualgayoc at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Deportivo Hualgayoc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Hualgayoc vs Sport Victoria

Deportivo Hualgayoc and Sport Victoria drew 2-2 in Segunda División on June 3, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Hualgayoc (Hualgayoc).