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Deportivo Hualgayoc vs Serrato Pacasmayo — Segunda División 2018

Deportivo Hualgayoc
Deportivo Hualgayoc
FT
6 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Serrato Pacasmayo
Serrato Pacasmayo
7/29/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 17Estadio Municipal de Hualgayoc (Hualgayoc)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Deportivo Hualgayoc85%
×Draw10%
Serrato Pacasmayo6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Hualgayoc
3.54
Serrato Pacasmayo
0.86

Deportivo Hualgayoc creates 312% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Deportivo Hualgayoc
2.07
Serrato Pacasmayo
0.79

allows per match

Deportivo Hualgayoc
0.93
Serrato Pacasmayo
5.00

finishing

Deportivo Hualgayoc+0.00on par
Serrato Pacasmayo+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Hualgayoc ↓

Serrato Pacasmayo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–14%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Deportivo Hualgayoc or draw
94%
Deportivo Hualgayoc or Serrato Pacasmayo
90%
Draw or Serrato Pacasmayo
15%

Winning margin

Deportivo Hualgayoc wins by 2+
68%
Serrato Pacasmayo wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Deportivo Hualgayoc 1+ goals
97%
Deportivo Hualgayoc 2+ goals
86%
Deportivo Hualgayoc 3+ goals
66%
Serrato Pacasmayo 1+ goals
58%
Serrato Pacasmayo 2+ goals
21%
Serrato Pacasmayo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Hualgayoc (draw refunded)
94%
Serrato Pacasmayo (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Hualgayoc at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Serrato Pacasmayo away — creates 0.79, concedes 5.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Hualgayoc attack 2.07 + Serrato Pacasmayo defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.54

Serrato Pacasmayo attack 0.79 + Deportivo Hualgayoc defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Deportivo Hualgayoc scores more
85%
level
10%
Serrato Pacasmayo scores more
6%

Deportivo Hualgayoc at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Deportivo Hualgayoc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo Hualgayoc 6 – 2 Serrato Pacasmayo

Deportivo Hualgayoc beat Serrato Pacasmayo 6-2 in Segunda División on July 29, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Hualgayoc (Hualgayoc).