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Deportivo Hualgayoc vs LOS Caimanes — Segunda División 2018

Deportivo Hualgayoc
Deportivo Hualgayoc
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
LOS Caimanes
LOS Caimanes
5/6/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 5Estadio Municipal de Hualgayoc (Hualgayoc)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Deportivo Hualgayoc69%
×Draw17%
LOS Caimanes14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Hualgayoc
2.51
LOS Caimanes
1.04

Deportivo Hualgayoc creates 141% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 25 away

creates per match

Deportivo Hualgayoc
2.07
LOS Caimanes
1.16

allows per match

Deportivo Hualgayoc
0.93
LOS Caimanes
2.96

finishing

Deportivo Hualgayoc+0.00on par
LOS Caimanes+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Hualgayoc ↓

LOS Caimanes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Deportivo Hualgayoc or draw
86%
Deportivo Hualgayoc or LOS Caimanes
83%
Draw or LOS Caimanes
31%

Winning margin

Deportivo Hualgayoc wins by 2+
47%
LOS Caimanes wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Deportivo Hualgayoc 1+ goals
92%
Deportivo Hualgayoc 2+ goals
71%
Deportivo Hualgayoc 3+ goals
45%
LOS Caimanes 1+ goals
65%
LOS Caimanes 2+ goals
28%
LOS Caimanes 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Hualgayoc (draw refunded)
83%
LOS Caimanes (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Hualgayoc at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

LOS Caimanes away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Hualgayoc attack 2.07 + LOS Caimanes defence 2.96 → ÷2 → 2.51

LOS Caimanes attack 1.16 + Deportivo Hualgayoc defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Deportivo Hualgayoc scores more
69%
level
17%
LOS Caimanes scores more
14%

Deportivo Hualgayoc at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Deportivo Hualgayoc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Deportivo Hualgayoc 2–1 LOS Caimanes

Deportivo Hualgayoc beat LOS Caimanes 2-1 in Segunda División on May 6, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Hualgayoc (Hualgayoc).