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Deportivo Hualgayoc vs Deportivo Coopsol — Segunda División 2018

Deportivo Hualgayoc
Deportivo Hualgayoc
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Coopsol
Deportivo Coopsol
8/12/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 19Estadio Municipal de Hualgayoc (Hualgayoc)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Deportivo Hualgayoc56%
×Draw23%
Deportivo Coopsol21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Hualgayoc
1.85
Deportivo Coopsol
1.05

Deportivo Hualgayoc creates 76% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 91 away

creates per match

Deportivo Hualgayoc
2.07
Deportivo Coopsol
1.18

allows per match

Deportivo Hualgayoc
0.93
Deportivo Coopsol
1.63

finishing

Deportivo Hualgayoc+0.00on par
Deportivo Coopsol+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Hualgayoc ↓

Deportivo Coopsol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Deportivo Hualgayoc or draw
79%
Deportivo Hualgayoc or Deportivo Coopsol
77%
Draw or Deportivo Coopsol
44%

Winning margin

Deportivo Hualgayoc wins by 2+
32%
Deportivo Coopsol wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Deportivo Hualgayoc 1+ goals
84%
Deportivo Hualgayoc 2+ goals
55%
Deportivo Hualgayoc 3+ goals
28%
Deportivo Coopsol 1+ goals
65%
Deportivo Coopsol 2+ goals
28%
Deportivo Coopsol 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Hualgayoc (draw refunded)
72%
Deportivo Coopsol (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Hualgayoc at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Deportivo Coopsol away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.63 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Hualgayoc attack 2.07 + Deportivo Coopsol defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.85

Deportivo Coopsol attack 1.18 + Deportivo Hualgayoc defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Deportivo Hualgayoc scores more
56%
level
23%
Deportivo Coopsol scores more
21%

Deportivo Hualgayoc at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Deportivo Hualgayoc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Hualgayoc vs Deportivo Coopsol

Deportivo Hualgayoc beat Deportivo Coopsol 1-0 in Segunda División on August 12, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Hualgayoc (Hualgayoc).