Deportivo Hualgayoc 0–0 Cesar Vallejo

Deportivo Hualgayoc

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cesar Vallejo

9/16/2018

Segunda División · Round 25Estadio Municipal de Hualgayoc (Hualgayoc)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Deportivo Hualgayoc49%

×Draw25%

Cesar Vallejo26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo HualgayocExpected goals in this matchCesar Vallejo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.08

Deportivo Hualgayoc

1.58

Cesar Vallejo

1.08

Deportivo Hualgayoc creates 46% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 33 away

2.07

creates per match

1.24

0.93

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Deportivo Hualgayoc

2.07

Cesar Vallejo

1.24

allows per match

Deportivo Hualgayoc

0.93

Cesar Vallejo

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Hualgayoc+0.00on par

Cesar Vallejo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Hualgayoc ↓

Cesar Vallejo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Deportivo Hualgayoc or draw

74%

Deportivo Hualgayoc or Cesar Vallejo

75%

Draw or Cesar Vallejo

51%

Winning margin

Deportivo Hualgayoc wins by 2+

25%

Cesar Vallejo wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Deportivo Hualgayoc 1+ goals

79%

Deportivo Hualgayoc 2+ goals

47%

Deportivo Hualgayoc 3+ goals

21%

Cesar Vallejo 1+ goals

66%

Cesar Vallejo 2+ goals

29%

Cesar Vallejo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Hualgayoc (draw refunded)

65%

Cesar Vallejo (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Hualgayoc at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Cesar Vallejo away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.09 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Hualgayoc attack 2.07 + Cesar Vallejo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.58

Cesar Vallejo attack 1.24 + Deportivo Hualgayoc defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Deportivo Hualgayoc scores more

49%

level

25%

Cesar Vallejo scores more

26%

Deportivo Hualgayoc at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Deportivo Hualgayoc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff