Deportivo Hualgayoc 1–0 Alfredo Salinas

Deportivo Hualgayoc

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Alfredo Salinas

7/8/2018

Segunda División · Round 14Estadio Municipal de Hualgayoc (Hualgayoc)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Deportivo Hualgayoc75%

×Draw16%

Alfredo Salinas9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo HualgayocExpected goals in this matchAlfredo Salinas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.39

0.68

Deportivo Hualgayoc

2.39

Alfredo Salinas

0.68

Deportivo Hualgayoc creates 251% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

2.07

creates per match

0.43

0.93

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Deportivo Hualgayoc

2.07

Alfredo Salinas

0.43

allows per match

Deportivo Hualgayoc

0.93

Alfredo Salinas

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Hualgayoc+0.00on par

Alfredo Salinas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Hualgayoc ↓

Alfredo Salinas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Deportivo Hualgayoc or draw

91%

Deportivo Hualgayoc or Alfredo Salinas

84%

Draw or Alfredo Salinas

25%

Winning margin

Deportivo Hualgayoc wins by 2+

52%

Alfredo Salinas wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Deportivo Hualgayoc 1+ goals

91%

Deportivo Hualgayoc 2+ goals

69%

Deportivo Hualgayoc 3+ goals

42%

Alfredo Salinas 1+ goals

49%

Alfredo Salinas 2+ goals

15%

Alfredo Salinas 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Hualgayoc (draw refunded)

89%

Alfredo Salinas (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Hualgayoc at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Alfredo Salinas away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Hualgayoc attack 2.07 + Alfredo Salinas defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.39

Alfredo Salinas attack 0.43 + Deportivo Hualgayoc defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Deportivo Hualgayoc scores more

75%

level

16%

Alfredo Salinas scores more

9%

Deportivo Hualgayoc at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Deportivo Hualgayoc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff