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Deportivo Garcilaso vs UTC Cajamarca — Primera División 2018

Deportivo Garcilaso
Deportivo Garcilaso
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca
4/16/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 12Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Deportivo Garcilaso39%
×Draw27%
UTC Cajamarca35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Garcilaso
1.32
UTC Cajamarca
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

Deportivo Garcilaso
1.21
UTC Cajamarca
0.89

allows per match

Deportivo Garcilaso
1.58
UTC Cajamarca
1.44

finishing

Deportivo Garcilaso+0.62scores more
UTC Cajamarca-0.34scores less

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Garcilaso ↓

UTC Cajamarca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Deportivo Garcilaso or draw
65%
Deportivo Garcilaso or UTC Cajamarca
73%
Draw or UTC Cajamarca
61%

Winning margin

Deportivo Garcilaso wins by 2+
17%
UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Deportivo Garcilaso 1+ goals
73%
Deportivo Garcilaso 2+ goals
38%
Deportivo Garcilaso 3+ goals
15%
UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals
71%
UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals
35%
UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Garcilaso (draw refunded)
53%
UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Garcilaso at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.58 · 6 matches

UTC Cajamarca away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.44 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Garcilaso attack 1.21 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.32

UTC Cajamarca attack 0.89 + Deportivo Garcilaso defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Deportivo Garcilaso scores more
39%
level
27%
UTC Cajamarca scores more
35%

Deportivo Garcilaso at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Deportivo Garcilaso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Garcilaso vs UTC Cajamarca

Deportivo Garcilaso and UTC Cajamarca drew 2-2 in Primera División on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco.