Deportivo Garcilaso 0–1 Universitario

Deportivo Garcilaso

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Universitario

7/6/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 18Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Deportivo Garcilaso27%

×Draw25%

Universitario48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo GarcilasoExpected goals in this matchUniversitario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.54

Deportivo Garcilaso

1.09

Universitario

1.54

Universitario creates 41% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.21

creates per match

1.51

1.58

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Deportivo Garcilaso

1.21

Universitario

1.51

allows per match

Deportivo Garcilaso

1.58

Universitario

0.98

+0.62scores more than expected

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

Deportivo Garcilaso+0.62scores more

Universitario-0.18scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Garcilaso ↓

Universitario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Deportivo Garcilaso or draw

52%

Deportivo Garcilaso or Universitario

75%

Draw or Universitario

73%

Winning margin

Deportivo Garcilaso wins by 2+

10%

Universitario wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Deportivo Garcilaso 1+ goals

66%

Deportivo Garcilaso 2+ goals

30%

Deportivo Garcilaso 3+ goals

10%

Universitario 1+ goals

79%

Universitario 2+ goals

45%

Universitario 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Garcilaso (draw refunded)

36%

Universitario (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Garcilaso at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.58 · 6 matches

Universitario away — creates 1.51, concedes 0.98 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Garcilaso attack 1.21 + Universitario defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.09

Universitario attack 1.51 + Deportivo Garcilaso defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Deportivo Garcilaso scores more

27%

level

25%

Universitario scores more

48%

Universitario at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff