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Deportivo Garcilaso vs Sport Huancayo — Primera División 2026

Deportivo Garcilaso
Deportivo Garcilaso
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Sport Huancayo
Sport Huancayo
2/5/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 2Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Deportivo Garcilaso47%
×Draw26%
Sport Huancayo27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Garcilaso
1.51
Sport Huancayo
1.08

Deportivo Garcilaso creates 40% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 147 away

creates per match

Deportivo Garcilaso
1.52
Sport Huancayo
1.05

allows per match

Deportivo Garcilaso
1.11
Sport Huancayo
1.50

finishing

Deportivo Garcilaso+0.00on par
Sport Huancayo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Garcilaso ↓

Sport Huancayo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Deportivo Garcilaso or draw
73%
Deportivo Garcilaso or Sport Huancayo
74%
Draw or Sport Huancayo
53%

Winning margin

Deportivo Garcilaso wins by 2+
24%
Sport Huancayo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Deportivo Garcilaso 1+ goals
78%
Deportivo Garcilaso 2+ goals
44%
Deportivo Garcilaso 3+ goals
19%
Sport Huancayo 1+ goals
66%
Sport Huancayo 2+ goals
29%
Sport Huancayo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Garcilaso (draw refunded)
63%
Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Garcilaso at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.11 · 62 matches

Sport Huancayo away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.50 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Garcilaso attack 1.52 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.51

Sport Huancayo attack 1.05 + Deportivo Garcilaso defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Deportivo Garcilaso scores more
47%
level
26%
Sport Huancayo scores more
27%

Deportivo Garcilaso at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Deportivo Garcilaso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Garcilaso vs Sport Huancayo

Sport Huancayo beat Deportivo Garcilaso 2-0 in Primera División on February 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco.