Deportivo Garcilaso vs Juan Pablo II College — Primera División 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 10+ matches
Deportivo Garcilaso52%
Juan Pablo II College23%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Deportivo Garcilaso creates 65% more chances
Season form · 17 home / 10 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under55
- Over45
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No52
- Yes48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Deportivo Garcilaso ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Deportivo Garcilaso at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.07 · 17 matches
Juan Pablo II College away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.73 · 10 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Deportivo Garcilaso attack 1.37 + Juan Pablo II College defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.55
Juan Pablo II College attack 0.80 + Deportivo Garcilaso defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.94
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 52%?"
Deportivo Garcilaso at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 52% does not mean "Deportivo Garcilaso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
3 previous meetings · small sample
Alianza Lima
Cusco
Universitario
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Sporting Cristal
Cienciano
FBC MelgarDeportivo Garcilaso
ADT
Alianza Atletico
Comerciantes Unidos
Sport Huancayo
Sport Boys
Atletico GrauJuan Pablo II College
UTC Cajamarca
Ayacucho FC
Alianza Universidad
UCV Moquegua
FC Cajamarca
Deportivo BinacionalIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Deportivo Garcilaso host Juan Pablo II College on Sunday, 25 May 2025 at 23:00. The match is part of the Primera División 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Deportivo Garcilaso vs Juan Pablo II College
Deportivo Garcilaso beat Juan Pablo II College 4-0 in Primera División on May 25, 2025.
Goals: C. Beltran (2'), A. Ugarriza (54'), P. Erustes (60', 71').
Juan Pablo II College controlled possession (71%) and registered 12 shots to 12.
The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco.