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Deportivo Garcilaso vs FC Cajamarca — Primera División 2026

Deportivo Garcilaso
Deportivo Garcilaso
Preview
00:00
FC Cajamarca
FC Cajamarca
7/27/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 2Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega
52%
Deportivo Garcilaso
model favours
52%25%23%

67% of Deportivo Garcilaso’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Deportivo Garcilaso52%
×Draw25%
FC Cajamarca23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Garcilaso
1.59
FC Cajamarca
0.95

Deportivo Garcilaso creates 67% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 9 away

creates per match

Deportivo Garcilaso
1.52
FC Cajamarca
0.78

allows per match

Deportivo Garcilaso
1.11
FC Cajamarca
1.67

finishing

Deportivo Garcilaso+0.00on par
FC Cajamarca+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Garcilaso ↓

FC Cajamarca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo Garcilaso or draw
77%
Deportivo Garcilaso or FC Cajamarca
75%
Draw or FC Cajamarca
48%

Winning margin

Deportivo Garcilaso wins by 2+
28%
FC Cajamarca wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Deportivo Garcilaso 1+ goals
80%
Deportivo Garcilaso 2+ goals
47%
Deportivo Garcilaso 3+ goals
21%
FC Cajamarca 1+ goals
61%
FC Cajamarca 2+ goals
25%
FC Cajamarca 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Garcilaso (draw refunded)
70%
FC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Garcilaso at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.11 · 62 matches

FC Cajamarca away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Garcilaso attack 1.52 + FC Cajamarca defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.59

FC Cajamarca attack 0.78 + Deportivo Garcilaso defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Deportivo Garcilaso scores more
52%
level
25%
FC Cajamarca scores more
23%

Deportivo Garcilaso at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Deportivo Garcilaso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Garcilaso
LDWLD
Cajamarca
DLDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo Garcilaso vs FC Cajamarca — Match Preview

Deportivo Garcilaso face FC Cajamarca on July 27, 2026 in this Primera División fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Deportivo Garcilaso host FC Cajamarca at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.