Deportivo Español 1–1 Juventud Unida

Deportivo Español

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Juventud Unida

8/3/2024

Primera C · Clausura - 5Estadio Nueva España

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Deportivo Español44%

×Draw30%

Juventud Unida26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo EspañolExpected goals in this matchJuventud Unida

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.81

Deportivo Español

1.16

Juventud Unida

0.81

Deportivo Español creates 43% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 46 away

1.22

creates per match

0.76

0.86

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Deportivo Español

1.22

Juventud Unida

0.76

allows per match

Deportivo Español

0.86

Juventud Unida

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Español+0.00on par

Juventud Unida+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Español ↓

Juventud Unida →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Deportivo Español or draw

74%

Deportivo Español or Juventud Unida

70%

Draw or Juventud Unida

56%

Winning margin

Deportivo Español wins by 2+

19%

Juventud Unida wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Deportivo Español 1+ goals

69%

Deportivo Español 2+ goals

32%

Deportivo Español 3+ goals

11%

Juventud Unida 1+ goals

56%

Juventud Unida 2+ goals

19%

Juventud Unida 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Español (draw refunded)

63%

Juventud Unida (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Español at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.86 · 121 matches

Juventud Unida away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.09 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Español attack 1.22 + Juventud Unida defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.16

Juventud Unida attack 0.76 + Deportivo Español defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Deportivo Español scores more

44%

level

30%

Juventud Unida scores more

26%

Deportivo Español at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Deportivo Español will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff