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Deportivo Español vs Dock Sud — Primera C 2026

Deportivo Español
Deportivo Español
FT
0 – 1
Dock Sud
Dock Sud
S. Modon 42'
4/30/2021Primera CPrimera C · Apertura - 10Estadio Nueva España

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Deportivo Español39%
×Draw29%
Dock Sud32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Español
1.18
Dock Sud
1.03

Deportivo Español creates 15% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 75 away

creates per match

Deportivo Español
1.23
Dock Sud
1.20

allows per match

Deportivo Español
0.87
Dock Sud
1.12

finishing

Deportivo Español+0.00on par
Dock Sud+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Español ↓

Dock Sud →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Deportivo Español or draw
68%
Deportivo Español or Dock Sud
71%
Draw or Dock Sud
61%

Winning margin

Deportivo Español wins by 2+
17%
Dock Sud wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Deportivo Español 1+ goals
69%
Deportivo Español 2+ goals
33%
Deportivo Español 3+ goals
12%
Dock Sud 1+ goals
64%
Dock Sud 2+ goals
28%
Dock Sud 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Español (draw refunded)
55%
Dock Sud (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Español at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.87 · 132 matches

Dock Sud away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Español attack 1.23 + Dock Sud defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.18

Dock Sud attack 1.20 + Deportivo Español defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Deportivo Español scores more
39%
level
29%
Dock Sud scores more
32%

Deportivo Español at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Deportivo Español will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
S. Modon

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Deportivo Español 0–1 Dock Sud

Dock Sud beat Deportivo Español 1-0 in Primera C on April 30, 2021.

Goals: S. Modon (42').

The match was played at Estadio Nueva España in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.