Deportivo Cuenca 2–1 LDU Portoviejo: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cuenca

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

LDU Portoviejo

L. Mancinelli 62' (pen), 55'

F. Fydriszewski 17'

10/19/2020

Liga Pro · 2° Girone - 2Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar Banco del Austro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Deportivo Cuenca54%

×Draw23%

LDU Portoviejo23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CuencaExpected goals in this matchLDU Portoviejo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.12

Deportivo Cuenca

1.83

LDU Portoviejo

1.12

Deportivo Cuenca creates 63% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 15 away

1.54

creates per match

1.13

1.11

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.54

LDU Portoviejo

1.13

allows per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.11

LDU Portoviejo

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par

LDU Portoviejo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cuenca ↓

LDU Portoviejo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Deportivo Cuenca or draw

77%

Deportivo Cuenca or LDU Portoviejo

77%

Draw or LDU Portoviejo

46%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+

30%

LDU Portoviejo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals

84%

Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals

54%

Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals

28%

LDU Portoviejo 1+ goals

67%

LDU Portoviejo 2+ goals

31%

LDU Portoviejo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)

70%

LDU Portoviejo (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cuenca at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.11 · 132 matches

LDU Portoviejo away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.54 + LDU Portoviejo defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.83

LDU Portoviejo attack 1.13 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Deportivo Cuenca scores more

54%

level

23%

LDU Portoviejo scores more

23%

Deportivo Cuenca at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Deportivo Cuenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

F. Fydriszewski

27'

I. Zúñiga← J. Caicedo

32'

E. Dreer

55'

L. Mancinelli↳ D. Dorregaray

62'

L. MancinelliPenalty

67'

L. Gómez← M. García

69'

M.

71'

S. Ojeda

76'

C. Almada← A. Cisneros

81'

D. Jerves← J. Rodríguez

81'

J. Mina← E. Esterilla

85'

E. Dreer

86'

J. Costa← A. Monteverde

90+6'

D. Dorregaray

90+3'

J. Bolaños← J. Chávez

90+3'

J. Quiñonez← I. Zúñiga

Deportivo

LDU

12

2

26

27

5

▼

Monteverd

3

Luna

16

▼

García

8

Insúa

33

▼

Cisneros

9

Angulo

11

⚽

Fydriszew

26

Heras

2

Cucco

7

⚽2

Mancinell

6

Ojeda

31

Bedoya

70

▼

Chávez

13

▼

Esterilla

8

▼

Rodríguez

77

▼

Caicedo

22

Thiago

9

A

Dorregara

Manager: G. Duró

27'▲I. Zúñiga←▼J. Caicedo

81'▲D. Jerves←▼J. Rodríguez

81'▲J. Mina←▼E. Esterilla

90+3'▲J. Bolaños←▼J. Chávez

90+3'▲J. Quiñonez←▼I. Zúñiga

Deportivo Cuenca substitutes

23Zúñiga16Jerves15Mina25Bolaños18Quiñonez60Jiménez19Neculman17Perea24Jiménez21Quiñonez36Betancourt

Manager: R. Insúa

67'▲L. Gómez←▼M. García

76'▲C. Almada←▼A. Cisneros

86'▲J. Costa←▼A. Monteverde

LDU Portoviejo substitutes

7Gómez32Almada1Costa15Vélez6González22Torre14Andrade99Almagro