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Deportivo Cuenca vs Imbabura — Liga Pro 2026

Deportivo Cuenca
Deportivo Cuenca
FT
5 – 2
HT: 4 – 1
Imbabura
Imbabura
P. Magnín 52' (pen), 27', 10'
B. Corozo 45+1'
L. Mancinelli 20'
L. Pantoja 87' (pen)
E. Mendoza 18' (pen)
5/18/2024Liga ProLiga Pro · 1st Round - 13Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar Banco del Austro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Deportivo Cuenca58%
×Draw22%
Imbabura20%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Cuenca
1.94
Imbabura
1.06

Deportivo Cuenca creates 83% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 15 away

creates per match

Deportivo Cuenca
1.54
Imbabura
1.00

allows per match

Deportivo Cuenca
1.11
Imbabura
2.33

finishing

Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par
Imbabura+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cuenca ↓

Imbabura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Deportivo Cuenca or draw
80%
Deportivo Cuenca or Imbabura
78%
Draw or Imbabura
42%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+
34%
Imbabura wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals
86%
Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals
58%
Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals
30%
Imbabura 1+ goals
65%
Imbabura 2+ goals
29%
Imbabura 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)
74%
Imbabura (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cuenca at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.11 · 132 matches

Imbabura away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.54 + Imbabura defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.94

Imbabura attack 1.00 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Deportivo Cuenca scores more
58%
level
22%
Imbabura scores more
20%

Deportivo Cuenca at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Deportivo Cuenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
P. MagnínDeportivo CuencaDeportivo Cuenca · F
9.5

Match Events

10'
P. Magnín
12'
Guillermo Coronel
15'
Guillermo Fratta
18'
E. MendozaPenalty
20'
L. Mancinelli↳ A. López
27'
P. Magnín↳ L. Mancinelli
45+1'
B. Corozo↳ W. Chalá
46'
L. Espinoza← M Arteaga
46'
F. Paz← J. Pita
46'
A. Santacruz← R. Chávez
46'
J. Alcivar← H. Calderón
51'
Walter ChaláPenalty confirmed
52'
P. MagnínPenalty
54'
Pablo Daniel Magnin
61'
R. Becerra← P. Magnín
61'
L. Arroyo← L. Mancinelli
66'
Luis Arroyo
73'
F. Mera← V. Branda
75'
L. Pantoja← D. Burbano
76'
Rodrigo Melo
82'
M. Zambrano← W. Chalá
82'
N. Dávila← B. Corozo
85'
Leandro PantojaPenalty confirmed
87'
L. PantojaPenalty

Possession

63%Deportivo

Shots

20Deportivo

Pass accuracy

53%Deportivo

Statistics

DeportivoImbabura
Overview
63%Possession37%
20Total Shots9
2Corners4
12Fouls7
Shots
20Total Shots9
8On Target3
5Off Target4
7Blocked2
14Inside Box3
6Outside Box6
Passing
63%Possession37%
493Total Passes285
444Accurate Passes230
90%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls7
4Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards1
2Offsides0

Liga Pro: Deportivo Cuenca 5–2 Imbabura

Deportivo Cuenca beat Imbabura 5-2 in Liga Pro on May 18, 2024.

Goals: P. Magnín (10', 27', 52' pen), E. Mendoza (18' pen), L. Mancinelli (20'), B. Corozo (45+1'), L. Pantoja (87' pen).

Deportivo Cuenca controlled possession (63%) and registered 20 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar Banco del Austro in Cuenca.