Deportivo Cuenca Juniors 0–0 Universidad Catolica

Deportivo Cuenca Juniors

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Universidad Catolica

12/3/2025

Copa Ecuador · Semi-finalsEstadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Deportivo Cuenca Juniors41%

×Draw25%

Universidad Catolica34%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo Cuenca JuniorsExpected goals in this matchUniversidad Catolica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.30

Deportivo Cuenca Juniors

1.45

Universidad Catolica

1.30

Deportivo Cuenca Juniors creates 12% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

2.00

creates per match

2.00

0.60

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Deportivo Cuenca Juniors

2.00

Universidad Catolica

2.00

allows per match

Deportivo Cuenca Juniors

0.60

Universidad Catolica

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Cuenca Juniors+0.00on par

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cuenca Juniors ↓

Universidad Catolica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Deportivo Cuenca Juniors or draw

66%

Deportivo Cuenca Juniors or Universidad Catolica

75%

Draw or Universidad Catolica

59%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cuenca Juniors wins by 2+

19%

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Deportivo Cuenca Juniors 1+ goals

77%

Deportivo Cuenca Juniors 2+ goals

42%

Deportivo Cuenca Juniors 3+ goals

18%

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

73%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

37%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cuenca Juniors (draw refunded)

55%

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cuenca Juniors at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cuenca Juniors attack 2.00 + Universidad Catolica defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.45

Universidad Catolica attack 2.00 + Deportivo Cuenca Juniors defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportivo Cuenca Juniors scores more

41%

level

25%

Universidad Catolica scores more

34%

Deportivo Cuenca Juniors at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportivo Cuenca Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff