Deportivo Coopsol 1–0 Union Huaral: Result & Stats

Deportivo Coopsol

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Union Huaral

6/15/2023

Segunda División · Round 10Estadio Municipal Facundo Ramírez Aguilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Deportivo Coopsol44%

×Draw26%

Union Huaral30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CoopsolExpected goals in this matchUnion Huaral

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.17

Deportivo Coopsol

1.48

Union Huaral

1.17

Deportivo Coopsol creates 26% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 66 away

1.32

creates per match

1.32

1.02

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Deportivo Coopsol

1.32

Union Huaral

1.32

allows per match

Deportivo Coopsol

1.02

Union Huaral

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Coopsol+0.00on par

Union Huaral+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Coopsol ↓

Union Huaral →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Deportivo Coopsol or draw

70%

Deportivo Coopsol or Union Huaral

74%

Draw or Union Huaral

56%

Winning margin

Deportivo Coopsol wins by 2+

22%

Union Huaral wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Deportivo Coopsol 1+ goals

77%

Deportivo Coopsol 2+ goals

43%

Deportivo Coopsol 3+ goals

19%

Union Huaral 1+ goals

69%

Union Huaral 2+ goals

33%

Union Huaral 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Coopsol (draw refunded)

60%

Union Huaral (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Coopsol at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.02 · 90 matches

Union Huaral away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.64 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Coopsol attack 1.32 + Union Huaral defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.48

Union Huaral attack 1.32 + Deportivo Coopsol defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Deportivo Coopsol scores more

44%

level

26%

Union Huaral scores more

30%

Deportivo Coopsol at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Deportivo Coopsol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff