Deportivo Coopsol 0–1 UCV Moquegua: Result & Stats

Deportivo Coopsol

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

UCV Moquegua

5/10/2025

Segunda División · Round 6Estadio Romulo Shaw Cisneros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Deportivo Coopsol41%

×Draw27%

UCV Moquegua32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CoopsolExpected goals in this matchUCV Moquegua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.11

Deportivo Coopsol

1.30

UCV Moquegua

1.11

Deportivo Coopsol creates 17% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 25 away

1.32

creates per match

1.20

1.02

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Deportivo Coopsol

1.32

UCV Moquegua

1.20

allows per match

Deportivo Coopsol

1.02

UCV Moquegua

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Coopsol+0.00on par

UCV Moquegua+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Coopsol ↓

UCV Moquegua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo Coopsol or draw

68%

Deportivo Coopsol or UCV Moquegua

73%

Draw or UCV Moquegua

59%

Winning margin

Deportivo Coopsol wins by 2+

18%

UCV Moquegua wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Deportivo Coopsol 1+ goals

73%

Deportivo Coopsol 2+ goals

37%

Deportivo Coopsol 3+ goals

14%

UCV Moquegua 1+ goals

67%

UCV Moquegua 2+ goals

30%

UCV Moquegua 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Coopsol (draw refunded)

56%

UCV Moquegua (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Coopsol at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.02 · 90 matches

UCV Moquegua away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.28 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Coopsol attack 1.32 + UCV Moquegua defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.30

UCV Moquegua attack 1.20 + Deportivo Coopsol defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportivo Coopsol scores more

41%

level

27%

UCV Moquegua scores more

32%

Deportivo Coopsol at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportivo Coopsol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff