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Deportivo Coopsol vs Sport Victoria — Segunda División 2018

Deportivo Coopsol
Deportivo Coopsol
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sport Victoria
Sport Victoria
7/14/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 15Estadio Municipal Roberto Yáñez (San Vicente de Cañete)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Deportivo Coopsol62%
×Draw22%
Sport Victoria15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Coopsol
1.82
Sport Victoria
0.77

Deportivo Coopsol creates 136% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 25 away

creates per match

Deportivo Coopsol
1.32
Sport Victoria
0.52

allows per match

Deportivo Coopsol
1.02
Sport Victoria
2.32

finishing

Deportivo Coopsol+0.00on par
Sport Victoria+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Coopsol ↓

Sport Victoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Deportivo Coopsol or draw
85%
Deportivo Coopsol or Sport Victoria
78%
Draw or Sport Victoria
38%

Winning margin

Deportivo Coopsol wins by 2+
36%
Sport Victoria wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Deportivo Coopsol 1+ goals
84%
Deportivo Coopsol 2+ goals
54%
Deportivo Coopsol 3+ goals
27%
Sport Victoria 1+ goals
54%
Sport Victoria 2+ goals
18%
Sport Victoria 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Coopsol (draw refunded)
80%
Sport Victoria (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Coopsol at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.02 · 90 matches

Sport Victoria away — creates 0.52, concedes 2.32 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Coopsol attack 1.32 + Sport Victoria defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 1.82

Sport Victoria attack 0.52 + Deportivo Coopsol defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Deportivo Coopsol scores more
62%
level
22%
Sport Victoria scores more
15%

Deportivo Coopsol at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Deportivo Coopsol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Coopsol vs Sport Victoria

Deportivo Coopsol beat Sport Victoria 2-0 in Segunda División on July 14, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Roberto Yáñez (San Vicente de Cañete).