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Deportivo Coopsol vs Sport Loreto — Segunda División 2018

Deportivo Coopsol
Deportivo Coopsol
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sport Loreto
Sport Loreto
5/25/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 2Estadio Rómulo Shaw Cisneros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Deportivo Coopsol60%
×Draw22%
Sport Loreto19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Coopsol
1.96
Sport Loreto
0.99

Deportivo Coopsol creates 98% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 25 away

creates per match

Deportivo Coopsol
1.32
Sport Loreto
0.96

allows per match

Deportivo Coopsol
1.02
Sport Loreto
2.60

finishing

Deportivo Coopsol+0.00on par
Sport Loreto+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Coopsol ↓

Sport Loreto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Deportivo Coopsol or draw
81%
Deportivo Coopsol or Sport Loreto
78%
Draw or Sport Loreto
40%

Winning margin

Deportivo Coopsol wins by 2+
36%
Sport Loreto wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Deportivo Coopsol 1+ goals
86%
Deportivo Coopsol 2+ goals
58%
Deportivo Coopsol 3+ goals
31%
Sport Loreto 1+ goals
63%
Sport Loreto 2+ goals
26%
Sport Loreto 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Coopsol (draw refunded)
76%
Sport Loreto (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Coopsol at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.02 · 90 matches

Sport Loreto away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.60 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Coopsol attack 1.32 + Sport Loreto defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.96

Sport Loreto attack 0.96 + Deportivo Coopsol defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Deportivo Coopsol scores more
60%
level
22%
Sport Loreto scores more
19%

Deportivo Coopsol at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Deportivo Coopsol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Deportivo Coopsol 3–0 Sport Loreto

Deportivo Coopsol beat Sport Loreto 3-0 in Segunda División on May 25, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Rómulo Shaw Cisneros in Chancay.