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Deportivo Coopsol vs Serrato Pacasmayo — Segunda División 2018

Deportivo Coopsol
Deportivo Coopsol
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Serrato Pacasmayo
Serrato Pacasmayo
5/26/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 8Estadio Municipal Roberto Yáñez (San Vicente de Cañete)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Deportivo Coopsol80%
×Draw12%
Serrato Pacasmayo8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Coopsol
3.16
Serrato Pacasmayo
0.91

Deportivo Coopsol creates 247% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 14 away

creates per match

Deportivo Coopsol
1.32
Serrato Pacasmayo
0.79

allows per match

Deportivo Coopsol
1.02
Serrato Pacasmayo
5.00

finishing

Deportivo Coopsol+0.00on par
Serrato Pacasmayo+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Coopsol ↓

Serrato Pacasmayo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Deportivo Coopsol or draw
92%
Deportivo Coopsol or Serrato Pacasmayo
88%
Draw or Serrato Pacasmayo
20%

Winning margin

Deportivo Coopsol wins by 2+
62%
Serrato Pacasmayo wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Deportivo Coopsol 1+ goals
96%
Deportivo Coopsol 2+ goals
82%
Deportivo Coopsol 3+ goals
59%
Serrato Pacasmayo 1+ goals
60%
Serrato Pacasmayo 2+ goals
23%
Serrato Pacasmayo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Coopsol (draw refunded)
91%
Serrato Pacasmayo (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Coopsol at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.02 · 90 matches

Serrato Pacasmayo away — creates 0.79, concedes 5.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Coopsol attack 1.32 + Serrato Pacasmayo defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.16

Serrato Pacasmayo attack 0.79 + Deportivo Coopsol defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Deportivo Coopsol scores more
80%
level
12%
Serrato Pacasmayo scores more
8%

Deportivo Coopsol at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Deportivo Coopsol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Coopsol vs Serrato Pacasmayo

Deportivo Coopsol and Serrato Pacasmayo drew 3-3 in Segunda División on May 26, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Roberto Yáñez (San Vicente de Cañete).