Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Deportivo Coopsol vs LOS Caimanes — Segunda División 2018

Deportivo Coopsol
Deportivo Coopsol
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
LOS Caimanes
LOS Caimanes
11/2/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 21Estadio Municipal Segundo Aranda Torres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Deportivo Coopsol61%
×Draw20%
LOS Caimanes19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Coopsol
2.14
LOS Caimanes
1.09

Deportivo Coopsol creates 96% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 25 away

creates per match

Deportivo Coopsol
1.32
LOS Caimanes
1.16

allows per match

Deportivo Coopsol
1.02
LOS Caimanes
2.96

finishing

Deportivo Coopsol+0.00on par
LOS Caimanes+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Coopsol ↓

LOS Caimanes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Deportivo Coopsol or draw
81%
Deportivo Coopsol or LOS Caimanes
80%
Draw or LOS Caimanes
39%

Winning margin

Deportivo Coopsol wins by 2+
38%
LOS Caimanes wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Deportivo Coopsol 1+ goals
88%
Deportivo Coopsol 2+ goals
63%
Deportivo Coopsol 3+ goals
36%
LOS Caimanes 1+ goals
66%
LOS Caimanes 2+ goals
30%
LOS Caimanes 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Coopsol (draw refunded)
77%
LOS Caimanes (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Coopsol at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.02 · 90 matches

LOS Caimanes away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Coopsol attack 1.32 + LOS Caimanes defence 2.96 → ÷2 → 2.14

LOS Caimanes attack 1.16 + Deportivo Coopsol defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Deportivo Coopsol scores more
61%
level
20%
LOS Caimanes scores more
19%

Deportivo Coopsol at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Deportivo Coopsol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Deportivo Coopsol 3–0 LOS Caimanes

Deportivo Coopsol beat LOS Caimanes 3-0 in Segunda División on November 2, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Segundo Aranda Torres in Huacho.