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Deportivo Coopsol vs Comerciantes — Segunda División 2018

Deportivo Coopsol
Deportivo Coopsol
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Comerciantes
Comerciantes
8/30/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 22Estadio Municipal Facundo Ramírez Aguilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Deportivo Coopsol44%
×Draw29%
Comerciantes27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Coopsol
1.26
Comerciantes
0.92

Deportivo Coopsol creates 37% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 44 away

creates per match

Deportivo Coopsol
1.32
Comerciantes
0.82

allows per match

Deportivo Coopsol
1.02
Comerciantes
1.20

finishing

Deportivo Coopsol+0.00on par
Comerciantes+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Coopsol ↓

Comerciantes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Deportivo Coopsol or draw
73%
Deportivo Coopsol or Comerciantes
71%
Draw or Comerciantes
56%

Winning margin

Deportivo Coopsol wins by 2+
20%
Comerciantes wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Deportivo Coopsol 1+ goals
72%
Deportivo Coopsol 2+ goals
36%
Deportivo Coopsol 3+ goals
13%
Comerciantes 1+ goals
60%
Comerciantes 2+ goals
23%
Comerciantes 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Coopsol (draw refunded)
62%
Comerciantes (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Coopsol at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.02 · 90 matches

Comerciantes away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.20 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Coopsol attack 1.32 + Comerciantes defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.26

Comerciantes attack 0.82 + Deportivo Coopsol defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Deportivo Coopsol scores more
44%
level
29%
Comerciantes scores more
27%

Deportivo Coopsol at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Deportivo Coopsol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Coopsol vs Comerciantes

Deportivo Coopsol beat Comerciantes 1-0 in Segunda División on August 30, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Facundo Ramírez Aguilar in Ventanilla.